August Coffee Talk: From Black Box to Glass Box: Evaluating Catastrophe Models to Support a View of Risk

Catastrophe models are used to make decisions across all aspects of insurance - from how much reinsurance to purchase to choosing which risks to underwrite and how much premium to charge. The foundation of these models is based on limited historical events, claims data in varying amounts and levels of granularity, and backfilled with a series of scientific and engineering assumptions to account for the possibilities that just haven’t occurred yet. We will discuss the critical steps to properly evaluate and choose a catastrophe model for a view of risk before it is adopted and implemented into a business decision-making workflow.

Katie Carter, CCRMP has more than 20 years of professional experience in construction management, engineering, and reinsurance. She leads the Americas Model Evaluation team with Aon Reinsurance Solutions in Minneapolis, MN. Katie has knowledge of peril model science and methodology globally, with deep expertise in the peril regions across the Americas. Katie oversees the change management of new model versions and works with clients on custom view of risk strategies. Katie has a Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering from Michigan Technological University and a Master of Science in Civil Engineering from the University of Central Florida.