Chalk and Cheese? Modeled Events versus the Real World

Fundamental to cat model construction is the concept of an ‘event.’ For physical risks, the model includes a catalogue of footprints with a maximum hazard value by location over the start and end of an event. In the real world, it’s not so easy. One windstorm can follow on the heels of another, making claims assignment to any one storm impossible. 

The same large-scale atmospheric pattern can persist for months, spawning multiple convective storms. Consequently, we may not be modeling events as a contract would respond, and disputes after a loss are becoming more common. This session will discuss what defines an event, whether our models are defining events as a contract would respond, and practical advice on improving our analysis as modelers.

Hear from our virtual panel of speakers including:

• Jennifer Catto, Associate Professor, University of Exeter
• Tim Edwards, Catastrophe Analytics Leader, Howden Tiger
• Steve Harlow, Head of RI Claims, MS Amlin
• Giovanni Leoncini, Sr. Product Manager, Moody’s RMS

We hope you'll join us!